The consultants of AMR International have revised the market predictions of its Globex: While the analysis indicates that 2022 should still yield global growth of around 40% on 2021 across most countries, the total market forecast has been downgraded.
It is expected that the road to recovery will continue to slow. The global exhibition industry may only recover to pre-COVID activity and revenue levels by early 2024.The original forecast for the global exhibition market in 2022 was to be 23% smaller than its pre-COVID size. However, changes in prevailing market conditions since the beginning of 2022 have given AMR reason to downgrade this forecast. The consultants have corrected this forecast downward to 28% largely due to the lack of exhibition activity in China, Hong Kong, and Russia.
„Macroeconomic uncertainty will also have a negative impact on exhibition markets.“
China's exhibition market, the second largest in the world, is being severely impacted by the recent spike in COVID cases and lockdowns in Shanghai and Shenzhen, among other cities. This also has a significant impact on Hong Kong, which depends heavily on Chinese exhibitors attending its export-based shows.
Furthermore, broader macroeconomic uncertainty will also have a negative impact on exhibition markets as many markets face rising inflation and depressed economic growth, AMR International states. Russia's exhibition market is being negatively impacted by the war in Ukraine, particularly among the portfolios of international organisers. Many organisers have proactively withdrawn from the country, handing over shows to local management to be run independently of the global brands, at least until the war is over. Eastern European exhibition markets, such as Poland, are also being affected as exhibition venues are being repurposed as accommodation for Ukrainian refugees.
"We at AMR International believe that forecasting is fundamentally a dynamic exercise. Particularly amidst today's ever-changing market conditions, we will try our best to continue providing some clarity on the trajectory of global exhibition markets", AMR International states.blog.ufi.org/2022/05/17/revised-globex-forecasts-solid-global-growth-in-2022-but-recovery-will-be-slow